En av alla oändliga förklaringar till varför det går som det går på marknaderna och hur det kommer att gå ges i en artikel i WSJ’s Market Watch med fokus på fredagens amerikanska sysselsättningsrapport – en rapport som antas stjälpa eller hjälpa marknaderna tillbaka. I början av artikeln ges ett par tankeväckande exempel på att aktiekurser inte alltid är korrelerade till samhällsekonomin, se nedan.
”Let’s start with an important caveat: stocks are not correlated to the economy.
The snap-back rally of 2009, with 60% gains from March to December, was one for the ages. But let’s not act like the economy was in “recovery” in late 2009. In fact, unemployment was actually at its peak .
This is just the latest example, but there are countless others. In mid-1932, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +1.00% measured around 40 points at its Great Depression low… but the Dow more than doubled in a year and a half, topping 100 points by January 1934 despite jobless rates topping 25% across some of that run.
Remember these examples. A robust job market is not a necessary part of a stock market rally.
However, there is one thing that the stock market does need in order to build significant gains: confidence.
Investors hate uncertainty; It’s a cliché, but it’s true.
The direction of American hiring trends are a crucial indicator of economic recovery and consumer spending, and therefore important to investors in any market. But the added pressure of uncertainty and recent confusion over economic trends makes this a make-it-or-break-it report.
I’ll concede that jobs alone may not move the market. But they matter a lot even in normal markets, let alone an environment where traders are asking a lot of questions about where consumers, wages and corporations are headed.
If uncertainty is the bane of the markets, then the best thing that can happen on Friday is that a much clearer picture emerges regarding U.S. workers and employment. Unless, of course, that picture is bleak.
The best thing that can happen is that we see a decent beat on the forecast of 150,000 jobs and benchmark revisions that don’t result in riots among the tinfoil hat crowd. A less fortunate outcome would be disappointment on the jobs numbers that reinforce fears that the recovery isn’t all it’s cracked up to be.
But the worst-case scenario would be more noise and confusion, with mixed signals about where the economy is headed and plenty of room for hysterical interpretation.
The market has turned its focus to numbers and cold, hard facts in 2014. So here’s hoping that Friday’s jobs report gives us something substantial to go on.”
By Jeff Reeves, editor of InvestorPlace.com.
Den officiella sysselsättningsstatistiken presenteras fredagen den 7 februari klockan 14.30 svensk tid.